Seeing Machines is a strong buy

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Today’s RNS announcing yet another contract for Seeing Machines Gen 3 Guardian aftermarket product is further confirmation that the company is set to hit cashflow breakeven by the end of this calendar year. 

Although the bus manufacturer wasn’t named directly, the 5-year contract must surely be with Wrightbus with whom Seeing Machines was already supplying its Guardian Gen 3 driver montitoring technology, after achieving homologation in July 2024.

Homologation for Gen 3 Guardian is also taking place with another 4 OEMs, representing 4,000 additional vehicles annually.

This follows a very positive video presentation yesterday from CEO Paul McGlone and CFO Martin Ive, in which they confirmed:

  • Seeing Machines is on track for cashflow breakeven by the end of this calendar year.
  • Approximately 2m cars a quarter will be hitting the road with its DMS from July 2026 (around 33 minutes 40 seconds). 
  • OEMs are collectively telling Seeing Machines that half of the auto RFQs that SEE has worked on are planned to be awarded by December this year, with the other half due in the second half of this financial year. (From around 15 minutes and 10 seconds)
  • Following successful trials, they are in final stage, “commercial negotiations” for the biggest ever Gen 3 contract in the US and another big one in the EU.  (Around 19 minutes).

I personally think the US negotiation is with Amazon and the European one is with Shell, which was surely the company mentioned in today’s RNS: “The company is also progressing towards a European-wide contract in the Oil and Gas sector, with Guardian already deployed in the UK and four other European countries.”

Peter McNally, analyst at house broker Stifel, in a typically perceptive flash note added that the current number of units deployed by this oil & gas major is 200. Therefore, I’m expecting many multiples of this when Shell finally sign the latest Gen 3 contract. Shell places great emphasis on improving safety outcomes and Guardian Gen 3 will deliver that.

I’m shocked that Seeing Machines is still sub 3p but, when the sceptics realise that it’s no longer a jam tomorrow company, rather a jam factory, that price will shoot up. 

Refinancing not an issue

Even the issue of refinancing the Magna loan of approximately $62m should hold no terrors, as Peter McNally pointed out in a note yesterday:

“Seeing Machines’ convertible loan comes due in October 2026 and unless shares go through the conversion price of 9.95p, it will likely have to refinance $61.9m of debt. We think there’s a small chance that Magna could extend the loan, but we don’t rely on that happening. Rather, we think the company will be in a good position to refinance.”

Personally, I expect the issue will disappear as the share price quickly goes north of 10p. Moreover, I do still expect Mitsubishi to make an offer for Seeing Machines before then. 

Mitsubishi partnership

This isn’t mere conjecture. In yesterday’s video presentation Paul McGlone even laid it out before investors; that Mitsubishi is leading discussions as to how Seeing Machines technology can be used in adjacent markets (9m) to benefit Mitsubishi.

“With Mitsubishi working with us in parallel they’ve identified a range of new adjacent markets where they have significant strength around the world, and we are now in the early stages of planning to determine where we can implement our technology to ENHANCE THEIR EXISTING CAPABILITIES (my emphasis). And of this portfolio of  opportunities 
both insurance and smart factory are the ones that we’ve prioritised together and are being led by Mitsubishi.”

To me it’s crystal clear that Mitsubishi needs and wants Seeing Machines. Still, it’s not the only company that is likely to bid for Seeing Machines, as previously stated. Admittedly, the timeline for a bid is probably more likely to be April 2026 than this year – but that’s not so long to wait. Moreover, it makes a higher price more likely. What’s not to like?

How many times does an investor get to buy a stock that is set to go up at least 5-10x in a year? Of course, do your own research – but don’t be too long about it.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Volkswagen confirms SEE DMS in all Tayron models

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There has been a lot of confusion recently regarding whether Seeing Machines driver monitoring system, located in the rearview mirror, will be in all VW Tayron models.

VW has confirmed to me that: “The ‘driver monitoring camera’ is standard in Europe (including the UK) for Tayron.

They even set me a photo of Seeing Machines DMS camera in the Magna rearview mirror, which illustrates this article.

The rearview mirror will be rolled out across the entire VW car range sold in Europe from now on, to meet Euro NCAP protocols and EU regulations. In addition, Audi has just launched the Q3 with Seeing Machines DMS in the rearview mirror.

Additional information

Given the rise today and the increasing volume of buys, I think it’s possible that at least one shrewd fund manager has checked out my left-field Mitsubishi bid thesis and found it plausible. Expect more such rises as those contracts come rolling in and more funds take the plunge.

Separately, I was impressed by this case study link found by a private investor called ‘Klick’ on the Seeing Machines website that shows its technology being used in an industrial setting, at a reversing mill owned by Logan Aluminium. Mitsubishi can surely make great use of this technology in various industrial applications. Incidentally, Mitsubishi through its JV Primetals Technologies produces equipment for reversing mills.

Does anyone else think it a mere coincidence that this case study is coming out now? It makes sense to me that Seeing Machines and Mitsubishi warm up their respective investors for a deal.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Mitsubishi to buy Seeing Machines by Christmas?

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Despite Seeing Machines share price being in the doldrums, I’m optimistic that breakeven (on a monthly basis) later this year will be swiftly followed by a takeover offer from Mitsubishi. If my calculations are correct this could happen as soon as this Christmas.

Although I don’t have definitive proof, I hope even my harshest critic could not fairly accuse me of laying out before you a ‘delusional’ scenario. Indeed, there is an ineluctable logic to Mitsubishi moving to buy Seeing Machines in a friendly takeover by early December.

Why Mitsubishi? 

There are a number of reasons why I believe Mitsubishi is most likely to acquire SEE. Mitsubishi holds 19.9% in Seeing Machines, their engineers are working together developing advanced driver monitoring features, Mitsubishi is helping increase sales of Guardian Gen 3, and Mitsubishi has the resources eventually to use the technology in everything from fork lifts to robots. Indeed, more immediately, the wide range of activities of this Japanese group shows an almost perfect fit with SEE’s 3 divisions; Auto, Aftermarket and even Aviation.

There is also a strong cultural fit, as this Japanese company prefers a consensual approach to a takeover. This fits with the Australian preference for a scheme of arrangement for a friendly takeover of an Australian listed company.

Why this year? 

Firstly,  despite being delayed, breakeven on a monthly basis is forecast to occur before December. Fortunately,  Euro NCAP and GSR2 regulation compel the road transport industry to accelerate the introduction of camera-based driver monitoring, and we’ll see increased license royalties from auto and sales of Guardian Gen 3. 

Seeing Machines should also have significant additional contract wins in Auto and Aftermarket over the coming months, confirming its dominant position as the number one global player in advanced, camera-based driver/occupant monitoring (morphing into interior monitoring) for years to come.

Breakeven with a pipeline of contracts guaranteeing significant profits should trigger buying from fund managers who’ve been patiently sitting on the sidelines. More importantly, it would likely reinforce Mitsubishi’s determination to follow through with its plan. I say ‘plan’ because this is clearly a strategic move that has been on the cards for a while.

Mitsubishi has already conducted extensive due diligence prior to investing in Seeing Machines and, with its near 20% stake, has a slight advantage over other potential buyers. It also makes sense for Mitsubishi to buy Seeing Machines just before it becomes highly profitable, otherwise the acquisition price could quickly spiral upwards.

Interestingly, the personal interests of CEO Paul McGlone and that of investors in Seeing Machines appear closely aligned: a bid would be at a premium to the share price (certainly multiples of its current price of approximately 2.5p) and enable him to secure his 25m performance shares before his current contract expires on June 30, 2026. It’s all detailed in the last annual report on Page 67, for those unfamiliar with the details. Note the target share price (TSP) needed for the CEO to secure the maximum number of his 25m performance shares is 20p.

Given the time it takes to process a scheme of arrangement (normally 3 months) and the fact the Australian Court is closed from mid-December to February, for Seeing Machines to be confident of closing the deal before Paul McGlone’s contract expires, early December 2025 seems the latest date that any potential deal would be announced.

The CFO Martin Ive has also been steadily hoovering up shares. Surely he is confident of a significant price rise when SEE achieves the long-awaited breakeven? Warren Buffett would certainly approve, having advised: ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

Price

What sort of price do I expect Seeing Machines investors to receive if this scenario pans out? I think the best they could hope for would be somewhere above 20p but probably below 40p. It’s unrealistic to expect more unless other bidders suddenly materialise. Still, by agreeing to a price well above 20p Mitsubishi could reduce the odds of that happening. 

I doubt the management of Seeing Machines, never mind the funds holding it, will look kindly upon a price below 20p given the huge rise in auto royalties that are guaranteed, not to mention the contract wins expected across all 3 divisions. Moreover, they’re probably in a position to encourage other bidders to step in were Mitsubishi to try. However, I think Mitsubishi has more honour and sense than to even attempt a low-ball offer.

Battle of the Titans

Regardless of the eventual price agreed by Mitsubishi and Seeing Machines, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of other companies stepping in with hostile bids, which would start the long-awaited ‘Battle of the Titans’. The list of potential rival bidders is long and could include one or more of the following: 

  • Amazon
  • Alphabet
  • Apple
  • Raytheon (parent of Collins Aerospace)
  • Qualcomm
  • AMD
  • Nvidia
  • Mobileye
  • Magna 
  • Valeo
  • Tesla

There might also be left-field entrants or a bid from a private equity player. Alas, the state of the world being what it is, I don’t think  a bid from a Chinese company would stand a chance of being accepted.

Crucially, it would take a big number to hijack what, to me at least, seems to be a very likely deal. Yet, in the above list of rival potential bidders there are some huge hitters.

Of course, I’m not Nostradamus and my assumptions could be completely wrong. Therefore, it’s advisable to do your own research and always invest only what you are prepared to have tied up for a while, never mind lose.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Stellantis confirms DMS across all models for Europe by mid 2026

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Speaking exclusively to this journalist, Stellantis has confirmed that it will be putting driver monitoring into all its European cars by mid-2026. Furthermore, I believe Valeo and Seeing Machines are the suppliers of its latest interior monitoring technology, which is set to go into production this summer.

A spokesperson for Stellantis confirmed to me this week that: “As DMS becomes a regulatory requirement, all new Stellantis vehicles registered in the UK and EU will feature the system by mid-2026. Some models will adopt it earlier if they are classified as “new types” under the EU General Safety Regulation.”

The reason I’m so confident that Seeing Machines is the supplier of the DMS/OMS system in partnership with Valeo as the Tier 1 is because the announcement ties in with other evidence.

Evidence

Firstly, Safestocks previously confirmed that two previous wins for Seeing Machines, in June 2022 and December 2022 were with Stellantis. 

Secondly, we know that Seeing Machines and Valeo are partnered for interior monitoring and Colin Barnden, in a LinkedIn post dated April 7th 2025, confirmed Seeing Machines and Valeo as working with Stellantis. Barnden commented: “QNX Cabin was demonstrated at CES 2025 running on a Qualcomm SoC, possibly the 4th generation cockpit processor, with DMS from Seeing Machines. So we can start to piece together a partnership encompassing Qualcomm/QNX/Seeing Machines, the first example of which appears to have reached production with Stellantis running DMS in the cockpit SoC.

“Qualcomm has previously stated the DMS can run in an accelerator on either the Snapdragon Ride or Snapdragon Cockpit processor, and the decision is left up to the automaker. So, at long last, we appear to have some evidence of the link between Qualcomm and Seeing Machines showing up in a vehicle at start of production. This information may also reinforce the conclusion that the tier-1 for the Stellantis program is Valeo, rather than Magna International.”

Lastly, at the recent Town Hall event, Martin Ive, Seeing Machines’ CFO, stated: “We also have 2 new OEMs going into production over the summer with a different Tier 1 [Ed – as VW is already in production with Magna, it must be Valeo]. They will add significant volume as we go through the calendar year, probably hitting more so with the ramp up in production by the time we come to the December quarter.”

Nothing in life is certain and, in the world of automotive, NDAs make it necessary to put together various pieces of evidence to draw conclusions. However, I’m sufficiently confident that Seeing Machines is the supplier to Stellantis to state it publicly. I hope it is of interest to investors as, to me, it confirms that Seeing Machines is set to dominate interior monitoring in passenger cars at least until 2027. 

Of course, I expect it to do so long after that date but probably under different ownership — I will explain all about that in a subsequent blog post.

Doubters should remember that Martin Ive himself stated at the recent Town Hall event that he expects (after discussion with OEMs and Tier 1s) that Seeing Machines auto volumes in Europe will go up 10x from 160k to 1.6m a quarter by June 2026, 2m overall. 

Of course, investors should do their own research and beware traders seeking to influence their views.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Seeing Machines focused on cashflow breakeven in CY 2025

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It’s clear from the latest spate of redundancies that Seeing Machines management is laser focused on achieving breakeven this calendar year.

In addition to cutting staff numbers by 77 in CY2024, the recently announced strategic reorganisation was accompanied by another wave of redundancies (70 people?) from Jan-March 2025, that is set to further cut costs, by ÂŁ12m annualised. 

According to a note issued on 27th March by analyst Peter McNally at house broker Stifel: “The $12m annual cost reduction means there should be a clear path to monthly cash flow breakeven in 9 months time.”

I’m naturally sad that so much talent at Seeing Machines is being let go and am well aware that the delayed development of Guardian Gen 3 played a large part in slowing the company’s progress to cashflow breakeven. Hopefully, these talented folks will find good jobs elsewhere and may even return to Seeing Machines as the business grows.

Still, as an investor it’s my job to assess if the reason for originally investing in Seeing Machines is still valid. I’m still convinced it is and reading Peter McNally perceptive analysis is reassuring. He explains: “Seeing Machines results show the company is adapting to a more challenging environment by adjusting its internal costs with the goal of reaching cash flow breakeven in the current calendar year.”

That doesn’t mean I don’t have questions and I hope to get answers to some of those questions at this week’s investor event – the so called ‘Town Hall’. (I can’t think of a Town Hall meeting without a bit of argy bargy — but let’s try and keep it civilised).

Whatever management mistakes delayed bringing Guardian Gen 3 to market it has developed and commercialised world class technology in multiple industries, making some super deals with partners ranging from Collins Aerospace to Mitsubishi and Magna. As someone who knows I could never run a company, I do respect those who possess that ability. Let’s not forget that Seeing Machines is actually saving lives. Not many of us can say that. 

Scandalous

If I’m angry and disappointed, it’s with the car and lorry manufacturers who have delayed implementation of life saving driver monitoring tech in order to save a few dollars. A few dollars that could have been shaved off the bill of materials somewhere less critical. That’s scandalous.

However, even that delay can only be temporary thanks to Euro NCAP’s sterling work and GSR2 regulations. All those OEMs are really doing is damaging their own reputations for safety alongside sales.

Guardian Gen 3

The good news is that in his note McNally confirmed that Guardian Gen 3 is now totally ready, in production and shipping now for various trials, which should lead to much larger orders in due course. 

“The biggest news in today’s results to us is that the Gen 3 Aftermarket product is ready, tested and now in production with early shipments commenced. This is not just the GSR-ready version of Gen 3, but the full Gen 2 replacement equipped to handle over the air updates in a better form factor. This is one of the main factors in revenue and profitability growth going forward, in our view. It should also improve recurring revenue from Driver Monitoring as units go live in the field.”

I obviously want more details on maximum monthly production volumes, prices and so forth. Yet, McNally is right when he describes Guardian Gen 3 as “a significant swing factor in future revenue and profitability, especially with the Mitsubishi partnership referral agreement in place”. 

Moreover, If the Mitsubishi partnership referral agreement delivers the volume of sales of Gen 3 that I expect, breakeven in 9 months may prove overly conservative. 

The main issue I have is separate to that, and relates to the truck manufacturers installing factory fit DMS for ADDW. The EU GSR legislation absolutely demands it. Yet, so far, there is little evidence of the likes of Volvo, DAF, Mercedes-Benz etc installing it. Only in buses have I seen much evidence. I’d certainly like to know if trucking OEMs are dragging their feet on that for the same reason some auto OEMs have.

Fortunately, large enterprise customers appear to be complying and those 7 “big trials” for Guardian Gen 3 that Paul McGlone recently confirmed are clear evidence of that. A win with Amazon would be huge news that could double the share price of Seeing Machines in a day. (I’m hoping we get official confirmation by the end of April). 

Breakeven

Let me be clear. Achieving cashflow breakeven will be a game changer for Seeing Machines. I know, from previous conversations with fund managers and recent ones with City contacts, that there is a tsunami of fund manager cash keen to come into SEE once it has proven beyond any shadow of doubt that it is set to be profitable. I still believe Paul McGlone, Martin Ives, John Noble, Mike LennĂ© and the rest of the team at Seeing Machines can make that happen. 

As evidence of the appetite for investment in the company Peel Hunt has now upgraded Seeing Machines from ‘Reduce’ to ‘Buy’, because of the “upside potential” though the price target remains at 3p. (I’m also expecting Singer to soon initiate detailed coverage).

With US$39.6m in cash Peel Hunt believes SEE has “at least 12 months of runway” and I believe that is more than sufficient time for it to become profitable and the share price to take off. 

I look forward to seeing our guests from Australia this week along with my fellow investors – some of whom have grown older with me.

It’s been a hard few months for SEE and for its investors. Still, I hope the smiles will be back on our faces very soon. 

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Investors seek answers for share price decline at Seeing Machines

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Following the precipitous decline in its share price over the past few months, investors in Seeing Machines are seeking answers.

The decline, initially caused by delays in the roll out of its Guardian Gen 3 product and poorer than expected quarterly KPIs seems to have gathered pace recently. The share price is now at lows last experienced during Covid, with no clear explanation from the company.

A wave of redundancies in the past week, together with a restructuring of its senior management appears to indicate that measure have been taken to address problems. However, a lack of clear knowledge of what those problems are has left much room for negative speculation. 

In this void it appears market makers have been only too eager to drop the price and trigger stop losses, fanning fears among private investors. Fortunately, the company has plenty of cash and there is no reason to fear it is going bust. Yet, management credibility has been questioned by some and investor trust needs to be regained.

What is needed at the forthcoming Town Hall event on April 2nd is clear communication as to what caused the issues with the roll out of Guardian Gen 3 and the subsequent poor sales and what is being done to fix them. Until that is done, the share price is likely to languish in the absence of firm contract news in either its Auto or Aftermarket divisions.

I’m a firm believer in the potential of this company but I do think investors deserve a full explanation.

The writer hold stock in Seeing Machines.

Why Seeing Machines should be included in the ‘Humanoid 100’.

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As Morgan Stanley recently outlined in a broker note, robots represent the physical embodiment of AI, which appears to be why they are in the process of becoming THE hottest sector of tech. Yet, despite producing a brilliant note Morgan Stanley has overlooked one key player in its round-up of the top 100 players; Seeing Machines.

That may well be because, unlike the likes of Mobileye, Alphabet and Meta it has a miniscule market cap and resides in a stockmarket slum called AIM. Regardless, someone soon is going to want to marry this beauty. Let me explain why.

To quote the broker note of 6th February: “The physical embodiment of AI touches a $60tn Total Addressable Market (TAM), global GDP, and the meaning of work.”

In that note Morgan Stanley presented the ‘Humanoid 100’, which it described as “a global mapping of equities across a range of sectors and regions that may have an important role in bringing robots from the lab to your living room”.

It used this graphic to illustrate a rudimentary division of these companies into those developing the brain and body value chains.

I’d argue that Seeing Machines should be included in the portion of the Brain (Vision & Compute Semiconductors), which as it currently stands is overly simplistic. For true robots to be successful they will need to develop an understanding of the cognitive state of humans, perhaps even display traits we’d associate with empathy. 

I think SEE sits in the same niche as Mobileye in that diagram. “These are the companies producing semiconductors that are the core of the robot “brain”, allowing robots to learn from, perceive, and/or interact with their environments. Vision-focused semis lie at the edge and allow robots to visualize their environments,” states the note. However, Seeing Machines does something special: it allows robots to visualise humans


It is Seeing Machines, with its software and hardware, that can literally breathe life into robots. As Victor Frankenstein would have exclaimed: “It will pioneer a new way, explore unknown powers, and unfold to the world the deepest mysteries of creation.”

Mobile robots

Still skeptical? Well, Seeing Machines is displaying that technological capability and is applying it to mobile robots; cars, with its AI-powered driver monitoring.

Its technology uses advanced machine vision technology to precisely measure and analyse head pose, eyelid movements and eye gaze under a full spectrum of demanding in-vehicle lighting conditions. This data is then processed to interpret driver attention state, drowsiness, and impairment levels.

That same technology is also enabling an eco-system that provides highly intelligent vehicle interfaces that employ AI to not just respond to speech commands, but to understand more subtle cues from occupants as indicated by hand gestures and eye movements.

Is it so fanciful to imagine that in the near future the ability to assess reduced cognitive ability and understand more subtle clues could be vital for ‘care’ robots used to look after elderly or vulnerable charges. 

Recognition of its ability in the transport sector has brought partners rushing to sign deals with Seeing Machines – many of whom feature in the ‘Humanoid 100’ list. Yet, its latent qualities in the sphere of robotics remains unrecognised by most. Hence, its current market cap belies the true value within. That cannot last much longer
 Do you hear wedding bells?

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Volkswagen’s small ‘BEV for All’ will feature Seeing Machines technology

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Volkswagen has confirmed that its Volkswagen ID2, set to go on sale in 2026, will feature a camera-based driver monitoring system (DMS) in its rear view mirror. Powered by Seeing Machines technology it is expected to feature both driver and occupant monitoring.

This small battery electric vehicles (BEV), based on the ID2.all concept, which was revealed in 2023, is intended to be a huge seller for the German car company. It is expected to retail for around ÂŁ22k for the entry-level model. 

As a spokesperson for Volkswagen confirmed: “The all-new Volkswagen T-Roc and our up-coming small BEV will be the next vehicles to be equipped with the camera-based DMS from start of production. Since the function (Attention and Drowsiness Assist) will be required by EU law from mid-2026, we are working on equipping all other vehicles with a camera-based DMS.”

Seeing Machines has previously stated that when it comes to cost and packaging complexity, its integrated rear-view mirror (RVM) solution, offered exclusively by the Tier 1 Magna, is best in class.

I’m therefore expecting many other car manufacturers who are late to the DMS/OMS party (but whose cars sell in Europe and are therefore required to meet GSR2 mandatory safety legislation) to choose the rear view mirror solution for their new cars.

Seeing Machines’ cutting-edge DMS/OMS is also available in a two camera-solution, should car manufacturers wish to use that.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Disappointing growth, SEE’s broker downgrades

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Following Seeing Machines’ disappointing first half Trading Update combined with quarterly KPIs, both house broker Stifel and Peel Hunt downgraded their price targets and cut revenue expectations, while increasing their estimates for the losses expected for this year. 

In terms of the KPIs: cars produced with SEE technology grew more slowly than expected, falling 34% to 267K in 2Q25 compared with the previous quarter. In addition, sales of Gen 3 Guardian were only 288, making just 1,779 units sold in the first half of the 2025 financial year.

House broker Stifel’s Analyst Peter McNally cut his Price Target from 11.4p to 9.6p but maintained his ‘Buy’ recommendation. McNally summarised his view as follows:

“Seeing Machines’ H1 performance is indicative of wider auto industry struggles, with broadly flat revenues and ARR, leading to a larger-than-expected adjusted cash EBITDA loss of $17.5-18.0m. 

However, cost initiatives over the past 12 months and further planned in H2’25 should reduce cash operating expenses significantly. We also highlight the recent $32.8m strategic investment from Mitsubishi Electric Mobility, which provides  stability as the company gets closer to reaching cash flow breakeven.

While cars on the road has been healthy with 90% y/y growth, Q2 production was down 34% q/q. Although there is a lack of certainty with regard to when exactly this volatility will reverse, we still expect a strong tailwind from the approaching GSR deadline (July 2026) as it moves closer.

Sales of Aftermarket Guardian 3 units have also faced slight delays, however we expect sales to accelerate in H2 as a result of a full commercial release and benefit from the new referral agreement with Mitsubishi Electric Automotive America, which opens the Guardian 3 up to a 1m+ vehicle fleet market.

We reset revenue estimates to a more conservative level based on market uncertainty, but do expect a reduction in the cost base by FY26E to mitigate much of this in FY26/27E. We moderate our target price to 9.6p (from 11.4p) to reflect these new forecasts.”

Explaining in more detail his changes in forecast and valuation, McNally said: 

“We reduce FY25-27E revenues by $10m, primarily as a result of softer royalties, prudently assuming that production volumes do not pick up in FY25E, with possible upside. While the FY25E adj. EBITDA loss increases by $7.5m to $24.4m, we expect the revenue reduction beyond FY25E to be largely mitigated by cost initiatives and as a result we reduce adj. EBITDA profit by just $2m in FY26/27E. As a result of our forecast changes, our DCF-based target price reduces to 9.6p (11.4p). At current levels the shares trade at 3.6x our FY25E EV/Sales, or 11.8x FY26E EV/EBITDA. Buy.”

In addition, Peel Hunt today downgraded from a ‘Buy’ to ‘Reduce’, slashing its Price Target from 7p to 3p. In its note, analysts wrote: “We cut FY25/26/27E revenue by 17%/19%/10% to reflect weaker automotive demand and the slow start from the Guardian generation 3.”

My view

Naturally, I’m disappointed by the update today. I had expected cars on the road to whizz past 3m, despite volatility in the auto market. I didn’t expect car makers to sacrifice safety in an effort to cut costs, thereby risking reputational damage by producing more dangerous cars for consumers. It is shocking that saving lives from driver fatigue and distraction is deemed a lower priority than making profits. Still, it highlights why regulation (in the form of GSR) and pressure from Euro NCAP are vitally important in forcing car manufacturers to improve car safety.

I don’t hold the management of Seeing Machines responsible for this atrocious attitude from car manufacturers, although it has clearly impacted revenues in the short term – and is likely to continue for two more quarters we’ve been advised.

Still, it shouldn’t be ignored that Seeing Machines continues to have more cars on the road with its technology than any of its rivals and I don’t expect this to change.

That is because I expect Seeing Machines to win a significant share of the RFQs that are currently underway. News of a significant contract win could ease investor concerns and encourage brokers eventually to upgrade estimates.

However, I’m far less forgiving of the time it has taken to ramp up production of Guardian Gen 3, which to be frank was late to launch and has so far sold only in small volumes. It’s no wonder many private investors have sold out. However, given CEO Paul McGlone’s statement in a video interview with Tylah Tully that there are 7 significant trials in progress – one of which I believe is Amazon – I hope that things are now on track for significant sales in the final quarter of this financial year. 

Fortunately, the company currently has a $39.6m cash balance and time to set things right before the end of this financial year.

Personally, I’m prepared to hold as I expect the share price to rebound on contract news before the end of this financial year. However, do your own research.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Will Seeing Machines win Japanese car contracts in Q1CY 2025?

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I’m optimistic that we will see a contract with at least one Japanese car manufacturer, possibly several, announced prior to Seeing Machines’ London presentation for investors on April 2nd. 

On December 23rd, 2024 Stifel analyst Peter McNally announced in a broker note: “We see potential for significant technological synergies through the combination of Mitsubishi’s innovations with Seeing Machine’s existing, market leading offerings. We plan to take a closer look at this and the Japanese market in Q125.”

The promised note has yet to be published and, in my view, may be timed to coincide with important news of progress with Japanese car manufacturers. Given the urgent need for numerous Japanese OEMs to move ahead installing camera-based DMS/OMS into their vehicles I was already expecting some announcements in Q1 – the announcement of this event increases the probability that we’ll get news of important progress this quarter. 

The simple reason is that many Japanese OEMs, such as Toyota, appear to be behind in the race to install camera-based DMS in their premium vehicles being sold into Europe. It’s unthinkable that many of their new vehicles won’t get 5 Euro NCAP stars in 2026 yet, with the new 2026 Euro NCAP protocols coming into effect in January 1st 2026, they have less than a year to get that in place. 

So far as I am aware, the one supplier that can cost-effectively deliver a top quality DMS/OMS in that timeframe is Seeing Machines. I know Seeing Machines has a presence in Japan and my sources indicate it has certainly had conversations with many Japanese car manufacturers over the years and apparently impressed them.

Of course, I may be wrong. Therefore, it’s important to do your own research.

The writer hold stock in Seeing Machines.